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14

Bearin Up

3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 80

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown improved form this season, winning over C&D and at Hamilton at the start of the summer. Plenty of creditable efforts in defeat since, including second of 15 over C&D (good to soft) 9 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 68 par15/055OR 683 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m2f50y Goo 115 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 1m68y Goo 130 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 73 par17/065OR 733 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f70y Goo 116 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 78 · 1m2f56y Goo 125 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/074OR 782 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m2f56y GS 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 7f212y Sft 127 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 77 par5/094OR 774 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m53y Goo 133 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Newmarket 22/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 76 · 1m Sft 133 · beat its mark22/10/2026 · OR 76 par22/104OR 76projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-22NewmarketD Allan42nd3rd−1
2026-09-21LeicesterSean Kirrane45th6th−1
2026-09-05HaydockD Fentiman43rd4th−1
2026-08-21YorkD Fentiman210th9th+1
2026-07-10YorkD Fentiman45th6th−1
2026-06-27ChesterD Fentiman32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0527/065/0922/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength68%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
31/05/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
17/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
27/06/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
10/07/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
21/08/202610th50/10%31%+0.31
05/09/20263rd16/116%82%+0.66
21/09/20265th3/184%67%-0.18
22/10/20262nd5/174%93%+0.19