9
Fort Rock
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 91
Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | Zac Lloyd | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | Connor Planas | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Kempton | W Buick | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kempton | James Doyle | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 76/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |