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11

Lighting Thunder

3yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 1 · OR 89

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Night of Thunder colt who has made a promising start, finishing runner-up on first 2 outings before making it third time lucky in novice at Nottingham (8.3f, good) in May. Not seen since but could have plenty more to offer in handicaps for leading stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0924 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 25 · OR - · 1m Goo 13318/0444 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1339/054projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09NottinghamR Havlin41st2nd−1
2026-04-18NewburyW Buick42nd3rd−1
2025-09-16YarmouthW Buick22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0918/049/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 4-5 · tight 75/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
18/04/20262nd1/195%96%+0.01
09/05/20261st1/499%100%+0.01