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Man Of Vision

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 91

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All-weather novice winner at 2. Improved again when just denied in C&D handicap on reappearance in May. Failed to confirm that promise on next 2 outings but back on the up with cheekpieces added (retained) when taking a July Course handicap under Toby Moore 12 weeks ago. That form has been franked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 29/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f3y GS 13329/0544 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 7f Gd 12831/1045 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f36y Std 13327/1252 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 87 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 87 par2/052OR 872 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 22 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 90 par13/062OR 902 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 90 par9/072OR 903 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 1m GF 133 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 88 par8/083OR 88projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08NewmarketToby Moore31st1st0
2026-07-09NewmarketW Buick213th12th+1
2026-06-13YorkW Buick29th8th+1
2026-05-02NewmarketW Buick22nd1st+1
2025-12-27WolverhamptonBilly Loughnane51st3rd−2
2025-10-31NewmarketD C Costello45th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/052/058/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20252nd6/492%80%-0.12
31/10/20255th4/179%71%-0.08
27/12/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
02/05/20262nd11/486%90%+0.04
13/06/20269th5/174%62%-0.12
09/07/202613th11/271%0%-0.71
08/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18