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13

Rainbow Nebula

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 81

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won off 2 lb higher at Redcar (1m, good to firm) in May but more miss than hit since, including always behind at York 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 7f219y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 83 par7/053OR 832 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 87 par12/062OR 872 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m2f42y Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 87 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 87 par11/072OR 872 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 85 · 1m2f56y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m Sft 130 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 83 par30/083OR 832 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m Hvy 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ York 10/10/2026 · Pos 19th of 19 · OR 83 · 1m2f56y Goo 138 · below its mark10/10/2026 · OR 83 par10/104OR 83projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10YorkBilly Garritty419th20th−1
2026-09-19AyrWarren Fentiman28th7th+1
2026-08-30GoodwoodBilly Garritty33rd3rd0
2026-08-22YorkCam Hardie217th16th+1
2026-07-11YorkWarren Fentiman212th11th+1
2026-06-25NewcastleWarren Fentiman25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0525/0630/0810/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 11-14 · tight 80/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
25/05/20265th8/158%56%-0.02
12/06/20266th18/15%67%+0.61
25/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
11/07/202612th66/10%48%+0.48
22/08/202617th66/10%16%+0.16
30/08/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
19/09/20268th10/147%46%-0.01
10/10/202619th14/126%0%-0.26