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12

Sterling Knight

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9 · OR 85

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to his best when scoring in good style at Newmarket (1m) over C&D in May but mixed record since, including turning in a lacklustre display at Bath only 12 days ago. Needs refitted cheekpieces and a return to the Rowley Mile to help spark a revival.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 86 · 1m GF 134 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 86 par2/053OR 864 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 92 · 1m113y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 92 par5/062OR 923 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 92 · 1m Goo 144 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 91 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 91 par9/073OR 912 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 91 · 7f218y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m GF 137 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 90 par14/083OR 903 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 88 · 7f GF 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 88 par4 @ Bath 19/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 137 · below its mark19/10/2026 · OR 87 par19/104OR 87projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19BathLewis Edmunds48th9th−1
2026-09-19NewburyCieren Fallon38th8th0
2026-08-14NewmarketToby Moore36th6th0
2026-08-01ThirskJack Callan27th6th+1
2026-07-09NewmarketJ P Spencer33rd3rd0
2026-06-19NewmarketJack Callan313th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0519/0614/0819/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
16/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
05/06/202617th14/126%6%-0.20
19/06/202613th9/153%0%-0.53
09/07/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
01/08/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
14/08/20266th14/126%44%+0.18
19/09/20268th20/10%53%+0.53
19/10/20268th10/147%13%-0.35