Sunset On Leros
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 2 · OR 92
Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | Marco Ghiani | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | Marco Ghiani | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | Daniel Muscutt | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Doncaster | Benoit D L Sayette | 1 | 4th | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-24 | Doncaster | Benoit D L Sayette | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Newmarket | H Crouch | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 20/06/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |