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4yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 11 · OR 92

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won on return at Chester in May. Bit of a mixed record since but latest third of 13 at Goodwood (1m, good to soft) was creditable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 95 par31/102OR 952 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 90 · 7f127y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 90 par6/052OR 902 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 94 · 7f1y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 94 · 7f14y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 94 par27/062OR 942 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 94 · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR - · 7f209y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS9/0812 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 94 · 1m Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Goodwood 11/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 92 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2026 · OR 92 par11/102OR 92projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-11GoodwoodC Lee23rd2nd+1
2026-09-05KemptonRowan Scott212th11th+1
2026-08-09DeauvilleM Barzalona119th17th+2
2026-07-11NewmarketR L Moore24th3rd+1
2026-06-27NewcastleW Buick27th6th+1
2026-05-30ChesterBilly Loughnane23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1030/059/0811/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20255th10/147%56%+0.08
19/11/20258th14/126%13%-0.14
06/05/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
30/05/20263rd5/287%80%-0.07
27/06/20267th17/255%54%-0.01
11/07/20264th7/163%75%+0.12
09/08/202619th5/174%5%-0.68
05/09/202612th40/10%15%+0.15
11/10/20263rd20/10%83%+0.83