IvyArcIvyArc
6

The Liffey

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 89

Newmarket · Dusseldorf's Henkel 169 German Oaks Handicap · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made hay in Dundalk claimers prior to a successful stable debut at Kempton (1m) in July. Backed that up when runner-up in a highly competitive Glorious Goodwood (7f) handicap and latest fourth in a classified stakes at Ascot (1m, good to firm) shows he's still in form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 1m Std 136 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 86 par13/02C8OR 86C8 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Std 142 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 7f Std 139 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 86 par27/03C7OR 86C7 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Std 136 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 85 par2/074OR 853 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 91 · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 91 par5/092OR 912 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 91 · 6f111y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 91 par3 @ Ascot 02/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 90 par2/103OR 90projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02AscotMarco Ghiani34th4th0
2026-09-13DoncasterS M Levey210th9th+1
2026-09-05KemptonRossa Ryan26th5th+1
2026-07-29GoodwoodMarco Ghiani32nd2nd0
2026-07-02KemptonL Morris41st2nd−1
2026-05-26DundalkJ M Sheridan?1st5th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0226/055/092/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
27/02/20261st16/583%100%+0.17
27/03/20265th10/1195%33%-0.62
26/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
02/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
29/07/20262nd22/10%95%+0.95
05/09/20266th11/142%62%+0.19
13/09/202610th33/10%25%+0.25
02/10/20264th25/10%63%+0.63