4
Flying Pirate
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 7 · OR 91
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newbury | Charles Bishop | 2 | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | Charles Bishop | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | Charles Bishop | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | Charles Bishop | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 6-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |