8
Kicking Bear
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 14
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Newmarket | R Havlin | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Newbury | K Shoemark | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 15-15 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -54.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |