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15

Lex Victoria

2yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 12 · OR 102

Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seven-figure Breeze Up purchase who won newcomers race on July Course here and novice at Kempton (both 7f) on her first 2 outings. Good 4½ lengths fourth to Musical Times in Fillies' Mile here (good to firm) 3 weeks ago, despite not looking entirely at ease on the course (hung). Capable of better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f GF 1288/0823 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f Sta 1359/0931 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 93 par9/101OR 93projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketJames Doyle14th4th+0
2026-09-09KemptonOisin Murphy31st4th−2
2026-08-08NewmarketDavid Probert21st3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/089/099/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +18.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
09/09/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
09/10/20264th25/10%57%+0.57