9
Mezzo Forte
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 13 · OR 97
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | R L Moore | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | Cieren Fallon | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | Tom Marquand | 2 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 10-15 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -15.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |