10
Midgham Man
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 93
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Newmarket | George Wood | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | Lewis Edmunds | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | Jack Doughty | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | Darragh Keenan | 4 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 10-15 · tight 69/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 10/10/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |