11
Nakila Sun
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 15 · OR 90
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | York | Jason Watson | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | Oisin Murphy | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | Callum Hutchinson | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | Jason Watson | 4 | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 2-15 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +12.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 29% | -0.27 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/10/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |