12
San Jose
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 6
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | James Doyle | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Newbury | Tom Marquand | 2 | 4th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 15-15 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |