13
Theheatison
2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 90
Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Ascot | P J Dobbs | 2 | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-10-09 | York | S De Sousa | 2 | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Newbury | Colin Keane | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | S Donohoe | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | S De Sousa | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Newmarket | S De Sousa | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 23/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 09/10/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 17/10/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |