IvyArcIvyArc
14

Twelve Bars

2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 8 · OR 87

Newmarket · Hurworth Bloodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising Space Blues colt who was second on his C&D debut before going one better at Kempton (7f again) 12 days later. Yet another in this line-up who has his best days ahead of him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 25/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 12825/0933 @ Kempton 07/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 1307/103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-07KemptonOisin Murphy31st4th−2
2026-09-25NewmarketC Lee32nd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/097/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20262nd7/282%92%+0.11
07/10/20261st4/596%100%+0.04