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2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 93

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful form. Creditable fourth 18 in Goffs Million at the Curragh (7f, good to soft, 17/2) 35 days ago, never nearer. 1m should be within range on that evidence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f111y GF 1286/0622 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 12823/0621 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 89 par23/071OR 891 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 94 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 94 par30/081OR 94BHA93 @ Curragh 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 93 · 7f Yie 126 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 93 par26/0993OR 93projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26CurraghBen CoenBHA934th14th−9
2026-08-30GoodwoodOisin Murphy16th6th+0
2026-07-23SandownOisin Murphy12nd2nd0
2026-06-23NewburyOisin Murphy21st2nd−1
2026-06-06DoncasterZac Lloyd22nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0623/0623/0730/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20262nd11/142%80%+0.38
23/06/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
23/07/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
30/08/20266th11/486%29%-0.57
26/09/20264th17/255%82%+0.27