2
Diplomata
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 85
Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | Tom Marquand | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | Tom Marquand | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | David Probert | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | Rossa Ryan | 3 | 5th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | Cieren Fallon | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 44/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +15.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |