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Haven

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 111

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dominant winner of a Dundalk maiden before an excellent length second of 8 to Musical Times in Fillies' Mile over C&D (good to firm) 22 days ago. That sets the bar high for a listed race and she's likely capable of even better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 7f Yie 12828/07C8C8 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR - · 7f Goo 1289/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 12825/09C81 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 91 par9/101OR 91projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketR L Moore12nd1st+1
2026-09-25DundalkWayne Lordan?1st10th−7
2026-09-09CorkWayne Lordan?2nd11th−7
2026-07-28GalwayJ Cleary?8th17th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/079/0925/099/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20268th16/116%36%+0.21
09/09/20262nd6/168%94%+0.25
25/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
09/10/20262nd28/10%86%+0.86