Speckles

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 97

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 1

Class gap: -3.4

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Leopardstown	Wayne Lordan	?	1st	10th	−7	1.0
2026-09-10	Doncaster	R L Moore	1	3rd	3rd	+0	7.5
2026-08-29	Curragh	Ronan Whelan	1	5th	5th	+0	5.2
2026-08-09	Curragh	J Cleary	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-19	Curragh	Wayne Lordan	?	6th	15th	−7	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 62/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength32%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/07/2026	6th	12/1	37%	38%	+0.01
09/08/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	92%	+0.21
29/08/2026	5th	17/2	55%	56%	+0.00
10/09/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
17/10/2026	1st	8/15	97%	100%	+0.03