Thi Qar

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 9 · OR 87

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲2

Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C2.3

Today: 1

Class gap: -1.5

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-01	Nottingham	W Buick	3	1st	4th	−2	6.4
2026-09-03	Salisbury	Oisin Murphy	2	2nd	3rd	−1	6.6
2026-08-08	Newmarket	R Havlin	2	2nd	3rd	−1	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 10-11 · tight 74/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -12.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/08/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27
03/09/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	86%	-0.01
01/10/2026	1st	1/3	98%	100%	+0.02