Arabian Light
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 111
Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | K Shoemark | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | W Buick | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | R L Moore | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Meydan | Billy Loughnane | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | W Buick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Sandown | W Buick | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 18/06/2025 | 29th | 11/1 | 42% | 3% | -0.39 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |