Avicenna
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 102
Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Sandown | Ray Dawson | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | Ray Dawson | 1 | 16th | 16th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | Ray Dawson | 1 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | Ray Dawson | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Doncaster | W Buick | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Doncaster | J Mitchell | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |