Balzac
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 100
Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Chantilly | C Soumillon | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Newbury | R L Moore | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | Sorin Moldoveanu | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | Billy Loughnane | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | S De Sousa | 1 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | S De Sousa | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/06/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 10/10/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |