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Nahraan

4yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 107

Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly reached a smart level last season, including Hamilton 11f listed success. Returned to his best with a clear third of 10 in listed race at Sandown (1m, good to soft) last month. Considered back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 27/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m142y Std 12927/0555 @ Windsor 09/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 1369/0651 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 95 · 1m3f15y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 95 par18/071OR 95C1 @ ParisLongchamp 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 104 · 1m1f207y Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 104 par14/09C1OR 1041 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 110 · 1m1f212y GF 131 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 110 par16/061OR 1101 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 110 · 1m2f42y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 110 par8/081OR 1101 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 108 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 108 par16/091OR 108projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16SandownOisin Murphy13rd3rd0
2026-08-08HaydockOisin Murphy13rd3rd+0
2026-06-16Royal AscotOisin Murphy19th9th0
2025-09-14ParisLongchampOisin Murphy?3rd3rd+0
2025-07-18HamiltonOisin Murphy11st1st0
2025-06-09WindsorOisin Murphy51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0514/0916/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -10.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
09/06/20251st2/1599%100%+0.01
18/07/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
14/09/20253rd5/174%67%-0.07
16/06/20269th5/174%47%-0.27
08/08/20263rd5/174%33%-0.40
16/09/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01