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10

Pacific Mission

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 102

Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 7f winner at 2 yrs. Yet to add to it this season but posted her best effort when third of 14 in Pride Stakes over C&D (good) 22 days ago. In the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 12813/0851 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 101 par31/10C?OR 1011 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 109 · 7f192y Gd 128 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 109 · 1m113y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 109 par6/061OR 1091 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 107 · 7f212y Goo 123 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 105 par29/081OR 1051 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 103 · 1m Goo 123 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Newmarket 09/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 102 · 1m2f GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 102 par9/101OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09NewmarketColin Keane13rd3rd+0
2026-09-16SandownColin Keane16th6th0
2026-08-29SandownCallum Hutchinson17th7th+0
2026-08-08HaydockColin Keane12nd2nd0
2026-06-06Epsom DownsColin Keane13rd3rd+0
2026-05-15YorkColin Keane15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0815/0529/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
11/09/20252nd11/142%86%+0.44
31/10/20252nd12/137%91%+0.54
15/05/20265th3/184%33%-0.51
06/06/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
08/08/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
29/08/20267th18/15%33%+0.28
16/09/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
09/10/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85