6
White Birch
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 118
Newmarket · German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed) · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | Saffie Osborne | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | Dylan Browne McMonagle | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Leopardstown | D Browne McMonagle | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Curragh | Colin Keane | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | Colin Keane | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2024-05-26 | Curragh | Colin Keane | 1 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2023 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 20/04/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/05/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/05/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/05/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 05/10/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |