Arlecchino's Moon
2yo Colt · 9-1 · Draw 3 · OR 67
Newmarket · Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Southwell | C Lee | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | Jason Watson | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | R Havlin | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | George Bass | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +15.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 18/08/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 400/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 08/10/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |