Cracking Idea
2yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 9 · OR 71
Newmarket · Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | Harry Davies | 2 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -55.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |