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7

Highland Frost

2yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 69

Newmarket · Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery · 1m 1f

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step forward with a staying-on third of 10 in novice at Bath (1m, good) 12 days ago. Makes handicap debut with more to come. Not ruled out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0933 @ Kempton 30/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0933 @ Bath 19/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS19/103projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19BathOlivia Tubb33rd1st+2
2026-09-30KemptonRob Hornby37th5th+2
2026-09-16SandownRob Hornby37th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0930/0919/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +38.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20267th250/10%0%0.00
30/09/20267th200/10%40%+0.40
19/10/20263rd100/10%78%+0.78