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3

Under Arrest

2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 10 · OR 73

Newmarket · Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery · 1m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Too Darn Hot colt who took another step forward when third of 11 in nursery at Pontefract (1m, heavy) 12 days ago. Big shout off the same mark with this longer trip also a plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS20/0633 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0733 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f212y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0934 @ Goodwood 11/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 1m1f11y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2026 · OR 73 par11/104OR 735 @ Pontefract 19/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 1m6y Sft 135 · beat its mark19/10/2026 · OR 73 par19/105OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-19PontefractCieren Fallon53rd3rd0
2026-10-11GoodwoodTom Marquand42nd1st+1
2026-09-03HaydockTom Marquand33rd1st+2
2026-07-04BeverleyCieren Fallon35th3rd+2
2026-06-20NewmarketHarry Burns35th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/064/073/0911/1019/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 65/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
04/07/20265th11/486%20%-0.66
03/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
11/10/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
19/10/20263rd11/486%80%-0.06