10

Wells Fargos Envoy

2yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 2 · OR 55

Newmarket · Idee 158. German Derby In Hamburg Nursery · 1m 1f

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a big step forward when fourth of 10 in novice at Redcar (1m, good to soft) 15 days ago. Further progress is on the cards over this longer trip on her handicap debut. Interesting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0644 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f75y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS16/0944 @ Redcar 16/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f219y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16RedcarD Fentiman44th3rd+1
2026-09-16BeverleyD Fentiman46th5th+1
2026-06-08LeicesterD Fentiman48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0616/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +30.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
16/09/20266th80/10%29%+0.29
16/10/20264th125/10%67%+0.67