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12

Alpha Magic

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 73

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first win of 2026 at Ayr (6f, heavy) in October but beat only one in handicap at Doncaster (6f, heavy) 8 days ago. Well in the mix if back on his A-game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ayr 21/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 84 par21/073OR 844 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 81 · 5f7y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 81 par17/053OR 813 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 80 · 6f12y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 77 par11/074OR 774 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 130 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 142 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 70 par17/095OR 704 @ Ayr 08/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 71 · 6f Hvy 124 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Doncaster 23/10/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 74 · 6f2y Hvy 127 · below its mark23/10/2026 · OR 74 par23/104OR 74projClass-projected finish: 15th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-23DoncasterJoanna Mason411th11th0
2026-10-08AyrConnor Beasley41st1st0
2026-09-17PontefractC Horgan52nd3rd−1
2026-07-24YorkS De Sousa421th21th0
2026-07-11YorkBilly Garritty411th11th0
2026-06-15WindsorCieren Fallon312th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0715/0617/0923/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 9-18 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/202513th20/10%29%+0.29
29/04/20264th11/142%40%-0.02
17/05/20268th12/137%42%+0.05
15/06/202612th25/10%0%0.00
11/07/202611th50/10%44%+0.44
24/07/202621st33/10%0%0.00
17/09/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
08/10/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
23/10/202611th8/158%9%-0.49