11
Dream Vega
3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 11 · OR 77
Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | Ashley Lewis | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | Ashley Lewis | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | George Downing | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Salisbury | George Downing | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 18-18 · tight 82/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -27.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |