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6

Dwindling Funds

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9 · OR 77

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable type who won 6 times during a remarkable 2025. Added to tally at York (1m) in July and comes here on the back of a good second of 20 in handicap there (1m, soft) 3 weeks ago. Needs considering.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m2f Sft 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 73 par19/064OR 733 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 1m208y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 par3 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 72 par5/073OR 724 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 76 · 7f192y Goo 132 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par3 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m1f35y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 79 par11/083OR 794 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 79 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 7f50y Hvy 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 78 par19/094OR 782 @ Newmarket 26/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 27 · OR 79 · 1m1f GF 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ York 10/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 77 · 7f192y Sft 134 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 77 par10/104OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10YorkRhys Elliott42nd2nd0
2026-09-26NewmarketRhys Elliott215th13th+2
2026-09-19AyrP Mulrennan44th4th0
2026-09-06YorkLauren Young46th6th0
2026-08-11HamiltonP Mulrennan39th8th+1
2026-07-25YorkP Mulrennan41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0625/0719/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20264th13/266%67%+0.01
30/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
05/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
25/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20269th10/147%33%-0.14
06/09/20266th11/271%72%+0.01
19/09/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
26/09/202615th40/10%46%+0.46
10/10/20262nd15/261%95%+0.34