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16

Emery Down

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 64

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#17

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a losing run at Chepstow (7f) in August and has continued in good nick, fifth of 10 in handicap at Ayr (7f, heavy) 23 days ago. Should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Sta 122 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 62 par30/045OR 626 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m3y Gd 135 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f173y Sft 132 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 59 par8/065OR 595 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 57 · 7f50y Gd 125 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 57 · 7f36y Std 137 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 57 par30/076OR 576 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 56 · 7f16y Goo 126 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f1y Goo 128 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 65 par11/095OR 656 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 65 · 7f3y Gd 140 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Ayr 08/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f50y Hvy 131 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 65 par8/105OR 65projClass-projected finish: 8th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08AyrO J Orr55th6th−1
2026-09-17YarmouthP Cosgrave63rd5th−2
2026-09-11ChesterS D Bowen55th6th−1
2026-08-29ChepstowP Cosgrave61st3rd−2
2026-07-30WolverhamptonPaddy Bradley66th8th−2
2026-07-06AyrS D Bowen52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/046/0711/098/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 8-18 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20265th28/10%56%+0.56
20/05/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
08/06/20264th9/488%63%-0.26
06/07/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
30/07/20266th5/287%55%-0.32
29/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
11/09/20265th14/126%67%+0.40
17/09/20263rd15/890%83%-0.07
08/10/20265th11/142%56%+0.13