3
George Wickham
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 16 · OR 81
Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Newmarket | R L Moore | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | Salisbury | Paddy Bradley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | Paddy Bradley | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | Paddy Bradley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Bath | T P Queally | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/10/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |