15
Kimbara
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 69
Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f
#18
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Newmarket | Saffie Osborne | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | Yarmouth | George Wood | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | Jack Callan | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | George Wood | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | Saffie Osborne | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | Saffie Osborne | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 8-18 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 10% | -0.32 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 12/10/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 22/10/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |