18

Majestic Wave

4yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 62

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#16

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a long losing sequence for Simon Dow in 10-runner handicap at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) last month, holding on gamely. Up 3 lb but should remain competitive for his new handler.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m Sta 128 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 77 par5/094OR 774 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m1y Std 124 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Kempton 22/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f Sta 134 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 71 par22/105OR 715 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 68 par6 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 65 par4/066OR 656 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 62 · 7f2y Std 132 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 7f1y Std 130 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 62 par4/085OR 625 @ Lingfield 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m1y Std 126 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 59 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 59 par10/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LingfieldPaddy Bradley61st3rd−2
2026-08-25LingfieldMason Paetel55th6th−1
2026-08-04LingfieldJames Glennon58th9th−1
2026-07-13LingfieldPaddy Bradley62nd4th−2
2026-06-04LingfieldPaddy Bradley67th9th−2
2026-04-14LingfieldPaddy Bradley59th10th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0914/044/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength57%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20256th80/10%38%+0.38
23/09/202510th50/10%0%0.00
22/10/20259th28/10%27%+0.27
14/04/20269th12/137%20%-0.17
04/06/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
13/07/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
04/08/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
25/08/20265th16/116%50%+0.34
10/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21