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Mister Bluebird

8yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 14 · OR 80

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless this season and arrives below par, eleventh of 15 in handicap at Goodwood (6f, good to firm) 38 days ago. Others appeal more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 85 · 7f14y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 85 par21/082OR 852 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 85 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 85 par27/033OR 854 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 7f15y Goo 134 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 85 par22/053OR 852 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 86 · 7f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 7f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par29/083OR 854 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Goodwood 23/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 142 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 82 par23/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 13th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23GoodwoodJack Dace411th11th0
2026-09-08GoodwoodCieren Fallon43rd3rd0
2026-08-29SandownL Morris37th6th+1
2026-06-05Epsom DownsColin Keane210th8th+2
2026-05-22GoodwoodMason Paetel32nd1st+1
2026-04-26MusselburghMason Paetel42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0826/0429/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 16-18 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20253rd33/10%85%+0.85
06/09/20258th22/10%63%+0.63
27/03/202612th33/10%15%+0.15
26/04/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
22/05/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
05/06/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
29/08/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
08/09/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
23/09/202611th16/116%29%+0.13