17
Noble Guest
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 12 · OR 63
Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f
#15
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Yarmouth | Connor Planas | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | Brighton | Callum Shepherd | 6 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | Oisin Murphy | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | Mason Paetel | 6 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | Harry Burns | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | D Egan | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 3-18 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 15/10/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 42% | -0.37 |
| 20/10/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |