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4

Prosperitas

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 1 · OR 78

Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low mileage 4-y-o. Good fourth at Kempton (7f) in September but only ninth of 12 in handicap at Doncaster (7f, heavy) 7 days ago. Not written off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 26/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 6f Hvy 129 · beat its mark26/10/2024 · OR 75 par26/104OR 754 @ Newmarket 17/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 79 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark17/04/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ York 31/05/2025 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 79 par31/054OR 794 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 78 · 7f GS 157 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 76 · 7f6y Hvy 134 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 76 par25/104OR 762 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 82 · 7f Sta 137 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 82 par6/054OR 824 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 81 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Doncaster 24/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f6y Hvy 140 · below its mark24/10/2026 · OR 80 par24/104OR 80projClass-projected finish: 7th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-24DoncasterRay Dawson49th9th0
2026-09-23KemptonRay Dawson44th4th0
2026-05-06KemptonGeorge Wood44th4th0
2026-03-28DoncasterMarco Ghiani212th10th+2
2025-10-25DoncasterL Morris41st1st0
2025-10-03AscotMr Lewis Kent413th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/103/106/0524/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 4-18 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20241st3/184%100%+0.16
17/04/20255th17/255%50%-0.05
31/05/202512th12/137%48%+0.11
03/10/202513th18/15%25%+0.20
25/10/20251st33/10%100%+1.00
28/03/202612th33/10%48%+0.48
06/05/20264th11/271%77%+0.06
23/09/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
24/10/20269th3/184%27%-0.57