9
Stenmark
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 2 · OR 76
Newmarket · Munich's Allianz-Grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Chepstow | Rossa Ryan | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | Rhys Clutterbuck | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | William Carson | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yarmouth | William Carson | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wolverhampton | William Carson | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | Jason Hart | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 17-18 · tight 88/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.11 |
| 01/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |