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10

Baltic Fire

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 107

Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goldikova Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Del Mar 07/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 110 · 1m1f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 110 par7/09C?OR 110C5 @ Santa Anita 13/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 104 parC6 @ Del Mar 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 106 par8/11C6OR 106C1 @ Santa Anita 31/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Santa Anita 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 101 · 1m Gd 124 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 101 par21/02C6OR 101C6 @ Santa Anita 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Santa Anita 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 101 par5/06C6OR 101C5 @ Del Mar 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Del Mar 08/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 112 · 1m1f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 112 par8/09C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Del MarKyle Frey?4th4th+0
2026-07-25Del MarKyle Frey?1st6th−4
2026-06-05Santa AnitaKyle Frey?1st7th−5
2026-04-30Santa AnitaKyle Frey?2nd8th−5
2026-02-21Santa AnitaCesar Belmont?3rd9th−5
2026-01-31Santa AnitaCesar Belmont?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0931/015/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20257th33/10%25%+0.25
13/10/20258th40/10%36%+0.36
08/11/20254th25/10%63%+0.63
31/01/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
21/02/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
30/04/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
05/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
25/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
08/09/20264th14/126%67%+0.40