4
Little Jamie
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 105
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goldikova Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | Micah Husbands | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | Nik Juarez | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Colonial Downs | Vincent Cheminaud | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2025-06-13 | Churchill Downs | Vincent Cheminaud | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-04-23 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 11/01/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/02/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 23/04/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/06/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 01/08/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |