1
Miss Nightfall
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 100
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goldikova Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | D Egan | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Yarmouth | Daniel Muscutt | 3 | 5th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | Callum Shepherd | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | Daniel Muscutt | 1 | 10th | 10th | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Ascot | Daniel Muscutt | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 76% | +0.34 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 08/11/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 96% | +0.59 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |