9
Mo' Em Down
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 9 · OR 106
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Goldikova Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | Hector Berrios | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | Hector Berrios | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-08-10 | Del Mar | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/05/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 11% | -0.73 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |