4
B Grayson
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 94
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Santa Anita | Kyle Frey | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kyle Frey | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Del Mar | Armando Ayuso | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | Alfredo Bautista | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Santa Anita | Alfredo Bautista | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Santa Anita | Alfredo Bautista | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |